US Markets

DJIA8952.89chart-81.80
NASDAQ1628.03chart+0.00
S&P 500927.45chart+0.00
2009-01-05 16:02

Intl. Markets

FTSE4654.11chart+74.47
DAX5077.15chart+93.16
Nikkei9080.84chart+37.72
2009-01-06 08:35

Commodity Futures

Oil49.98chart+1.17
Gold847.10chart+0.00
Copper1.52chart+0.07
2009-01-06 08:20

Treasury Yield

13 Weeks0.14chart+0.05
5 Year1.73chart+0.03
10 Year2.55chart+0.06
2009-01-06 08:35

Exchange Rates

JPY94.38chart+0.00
EUR0.75chart+0.00
GBP0.69chart+0.00
2009-01-06 08:50

A Lesson to Remember

As an owner of real estate, a licensed real estate agent, former property developer and manager, I feel qualified to give a much needed piece of common sense advice.

As of late, 99% of the U.S. population has avoided buying new residential real estate. There are already new contrarians, however, advising to get into the market now, since prices are down and most people are running away. These contrarians will also reiterate the usual song and dance about how a house can be your biggest asset and how paying rent money is like throwing money out of the window. These are completely misleading statements. Let me illustrate what happens when one buys real estate, no matter what the market is doing.

Before I bought my first condo, a friend of mine from the West Coast told me about his condo, which he bought for $200,000, and sold for $300,000 two years later. He talked about how he was able to make a $100,000 profit during grad school, and that I was crazy to be renting, since I would never see any return.

For that reason, when I bought a condo for $200,000, I too was looking forward to a handsome payoff. Here is a breakdown of what actually happened:

I paid about $20,000 as a down payment with the rest covered by the bank, which I paid back via mortgage payments that came out to be around $2,000 per month (including HOA fees). I also paid a state property tax of $2,000 per year, and a county property tax of $500 per year. Even though my condo had been newly constructed, I had to pay certain maintenance fees and upkeep expenses totaling more or less $250 per year.

This was when I realized that my friend probably had more or less the same numbers that I had, so I wanted to see how his $100,000 “profit” looked after all these expenses. This is what I came up with:

Down payment: $20,000
2 years mortgage: 24 * $2,000 = $48,000
2 year property tax: 2 * $2,500 = $5,000
2 year maintenance: 2* $250 = $500
Total expenses: $73,500

I also asked him what type of a mortgage he had. He said it was a 5 year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM), similar to mine. This means that he would have been paying only interest on his loan for the first 5 years. Selling it after two years, he would have not paid down any of the principal, so he would owe the full $180,000 back to the bank at closing. Let us then remember that the government counts the difference between buying and selling price as capital gains, and will tax it accordingly (at 35%, which makes $100,000 * 35% = $35,000). We must also remember the agent’s fee, which is usually 6% or 7%, paid by the seller (6% * $ 300,000 = $18,000)

Therefore:

Selling Price
$300,000.00
Total owed to the Bank:
$180,000.00
Total Expenses
$73,500.00
Total Taxes
$35,000.00
Agent Fee
$18,000.00
Total Profit
$(6,500.00)

Aside from the down payment, all expenses continue year to year. Only after the 5th year (in this particular case) will the amount owed to the bank actually start being paid down.

Taking these points into account, there are only two cases, roughly speaking, in which an investor can truly make a profit:

  1. Investor Joe buys a house and he is able to procure a renter who can pay more than the mortgage payments in rent. These rental payments will then continue long enough after the principal starts being paid down to cover the down payment. The payments will also cover the property taxes and maintenance in the long term.
  2. Investor Jane buys a condo and she has a seller lined up right away so she can, for all practical purposes, buy and sell at the same time. If this is done through foreclosure the selling price must cover eventual code upkeep (sewage, termite inspection, etc. etc.) as well as agent fees. Another property should then be available to buy within a year in order to perform what is called a 1031 exchange (so as to avoid being taxes the 35%).

In both cases, one needs to know the ins and outs of real estate. There are several ways to do this, but I would advise taking a course of some sort - even an evening lecture costing $500 would save you money in the end. So please use your common sense before taking risks, especially with amounts like these.

Utility:
1 I like Tariffs and Taxes2 I would rather watch TMZ.3 I wonder what Paris is doing.4 Well, this is rather irrelevant5 For the effort...6 Huh, really?7 Interesting... do go on.8 A new wrinkle for my brain9 I think a whole new lobe just appeared10 For the win! (5 votes, average: 9.6 out of 10)
Loading ... Loading ...

Car Payment Calculations

Along the lines of our Mortgage payment calculations and our Airline Mileage calculations, here we offer our car payment calculations.  If you want to evaluate a car loan, just enter the amount, the number of years it is for, and the percentage they’re charging you, and our program will tell you what your payment will be.

Car Payment Calculator

Utility:
1 I like Tariffs and Taxes2 I would rather watch TMZ.3 I wonder what Paris is doing.4 Well, this is rather irrelevant5 For the effort...6 Huh, really?7 Interesting... do go on.8 A new wrinkle for my brain9 I think a whole new lobe just appeared10 For the win! (3 votes, average: 7.67 out of 10)
Loading ... Loading ...

The Dead Weight Loss of Christmas

Note: We thought we would publish this article again, for those of you worried about getting the perfect present, or worried because you haven’t gotten a present, or simply curious about the Dead Weight Loss of Christmas (or any gift-giving occasion).  

With the Holidays upon us we are all going through the rat race, whether physical or online, of finding the perfect present for the so-and-so who has everything and, crucially, finding it at the best price. So it seems like a good time to explore what sort of a waste these gift giving holidays can be. I am not speaking from a Scrooge-like ‘save your money and keep working over the holidays’ point of view, and I enjoy the holiday season as much as the next man, but it is interesting to see what amounts to a rather large Dead Weight Loss when it comes to Christmas presents.  Read the rest

Utility:
1 I like Tariffs and Taxes2 I would rather watch TMZ.3 I wonder what Paris is doing.4 Well, this is rather irrelevant5 For the effort...6 Huh, really?7 Interesting... do go on.8 A new wrinkle for my brain9 I think a whole new lobe just appeared10 For the win! (4 votes, average: 8.5 out of 10)
Loading ... Loading ...

Fools being Dumb agents

In yet another example of the Wisdom of crowds at work, we would like to point out Motley Fool’s CAPS. This is a website where investors can gather to rate stocks. Each member can rate a stock, and say whether they think it will outperform or underperform the trading indexes, by how much, and within which time frame. The results are then aggregated by Motley Fool in order to show which stocks are rated highest and which lowest.

While we at Dumbagent always applaud applications such as these, we also feel it is our duty to point out certain caveats, as relate to the accuracy of the website:

First, the application costs nothing. Members can gain points depending on the accuracy of their stock assessments. As we have noted in the past, however, if there is no cost to the consumer for participating the end result tends to be less accurate than if there were a commission or fee to pay.

Secondly, buying and selling stocks themselves is the most accurate form of determining their value. In essence this is a secondary market rating the accuracy of the primary market by utilizing the same methods, only with fewer members who have less at stake.

Having said this, however, we still think this could be an interesting idea for those who might want some reassurances before investing in these troubled markets.

As a test, we will buy 100 shares each of the top 5 picks, and we will short 100 shares of the bottom 5 picks, and we will check back in a couple months to see how this portfolio performed.

STOCKS BOUGHT:                                                                       STOCKS SOLD:

For simplicity’s sake, a $1 gain in the Stocks Bought will add $1, and a $1 loss in the Stocks Sold will also add $1.

Utility:
1 I like Tariffs and Taxes2 I would rather watch TMZ.3 I wonder what Paris is doing.4 Well, this is rather irrelevant5 For the effort...6 Huh, really?7 Interesting... do go on.8 A new wrinkle for my brain9 I think a whole new lobe just appeared10 For the win! (5 votes, average: 9.4 out of 10)
Loading ... Loading ...

The Beginning of the End

The United States has been causing economic ruin in the global economy. For years, Americans borrowed trillions of dollars to finance lavish lifestyles. In the end, the desire for granite counter tops, plasma TVs and Mercedes Benz convertibles will be the catalyst that will put the United States on its knees.

Since August of 2007, the major banks and financial institutions have raised their hands in the air, and have admitted that they have capital problems.

  1. Dangerous levels of leverage of 30:1.
  2. Abusing the prominent status of the US Dollar and using exotic derivatives to juice returns.
  3. Lack of accountability and relying on the government to bail them out when problems occurred.

Make no mistake about it, this is a US financial institution problem.

How much are they holding on to?

If you wondered why JP Morgan is so interested in refinancing mortgages to Americans, the above chart (provided by http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/) illustrates why. The chart illustrates the number of assets that each institution has on their books and the amount of equity they have to cover potential losses. In particular, Level 2 assets are those which are being priced based on a model. Level 3 assets have no bid in the market and their value is unknown. The amount of mark-to-model assets alone is so large, that if the reflation of the housing market fails, it will mean the remaining institutions will go the way of Washington Mutual, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and it will drag the United States into a deep depression that will make 1929 look like a little league baseball game. 10:1 leverage created the Great Depression. I can only imagine what 30:1 will do.

Dragging down the innocent

The Federal Reserve during the 2001 recession sent the wrong signal to the market by setting interest rates to an artificial 1%. In doing so, it told the market: “We see future growth and prosperity ahead. Please spend”. Businesses that had should have went bankrupt, continued to operate, and expanded operations based on their faith that the good times were ahead. Fast forward to 2008, businesses that should have failed in 2001 have collectively made the bankruptcy pool larger, resulting in more pain for the US Economy.

While subprime is a thoroughly discussed subject, the main focus should be on the derivatives that were created on top of the mortgages. Derivatives are off-table bets that have no regulation. In particular, the Credit Default Swap market by itself is a whopping $50 trillion. CDS’s are insurance policies on bonds in case the company that issues them goes bankrupt. It is a hedge to recover principal in case bankruptcy occurs. A company that issues a CDS accepts payment for providing the insurance, and is “in the money” as long as the company behind the bond does not go out of business. CDS’s were once viewed as highly profitable since the following assumptions were always believed to hold true:

  1. liquidity was always available
  2. housing prices would always go up.

As the subprime crisis reared its ugly head, the institutions holding onto this toxic paper realized the gravity of the situation when Bear Stearns was near collapse. JP Morgan issued a lot of the CDS behind Bear Stearn’s bonds, and therefore had to bail them out or risk going out of business.

The problem is far from over however, as a second wave of option-ARMs (and all related derivates) are set to deluge the banks with more losses. As a result, credit to all sectors of the economy has dried up because the banks have to save capital to account for these losses. The losses aren’t going to be realized over a 20, 10 or even 5 years: They are imminent. Lines of credit have been stopped even to reputable businesses:

McDonald’s Says Bank of America Won’t Boost Loans (Bloomberg link)

Store owners have exhausted financing used to pay for upgrades and equipment to make lattes and espressos, and Bank of America won’t provide more money as it works on the planned purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co., McDonald’s said in a memo that was obtained by Bloomberg News.

When one of the biggest banks in the United States cannot offer credit to one of the most successful fast-food chains, what does that say about that bank?

The Mother of All Margin Calls

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke’s response has been to follow his original thesis in a Federal Reserve Paper entitled “Deflation: Making Sure it Doesn’t Happen Here”. In his speech, he examines the causes of the deflation and the Federal Reserves methods of counteracting this monetary phenomena.

Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

In September of this year, Bernanke and Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson faced a looming problem. Banks and mortgage lenders were failing left and right, and they were in dire need of capital. But they could not provide liquidity to the banks because of the threat of inflation, the US Dollar falling in value, and rising commodity prices. To give themselves leeway to implement their policy, they engineered the failure of Lehman Brothers, which set off the payment clause in Credit Default Swaps written against Lehman bonds. Hedge funds and insurance companies behind Lehman CDS were now in a huge scramble for capital. As these funds were not well capitalized and over-leveraged, their only source of funds was to unwind their profitable trades, which was dominantly long commodities, short the US Dollar. Thus we had a mechanical reversal of the charts of commodities and the US Dollar. In short we had a gigantic margin call with forced selling of commodity contracts that sent markets scurrying for dollars to settle these trades. The panic spilled over into the overall market and led to selling of all equities.

Dangerous Games

Deflation is now the buzzword in the financial press given the recent plunges in stocks and commodities. The US consumer has reigned in their spending and is paying off debt now that the years of “prosperity” appear to be over. Wealth has “vanished” as strategies such as diversification and overseas investing have done little to nothing to protect investors from the current bear market. The fear of deflation has moved consumers and investors to hoard dollars and rush into the safety of treasuries and bonds, driving down benchmark rates.

Interest rates are heading to 0% in hopes of lending money to reflate the United States economy. Printing large amounts of money will cause a natural rise in the prices of everything we buy. Oil will soon be returning to its highs and we will never see $50 a barrel again. This has been my biggest fear that I have been chronicling. Hyperinflation is coming. You cannot hope to get out of a crisis by issuing more currency.  The nations with US dollar currency reserves know the jig is up and are making plans to secure resources in attempts to jump start their own economies.

Utility:
1 I like Tariffs and Taxes2 I would rather watch TMZ.3 I wonder what Paris is doing.4 Well, this is rather irrelevant5 For the effort...6 Huh, really?7 Interesting... do go on.8 A new wrinkle for my brain9 I think a whole new lobe just appeared10 For the win! (3 votes, average: 9.33 out of 10)
Loading ... Loading ...