Goldman Sachs just posted enormous profits and the July US CPI is higher than expected. What does this mean? Well, it could mean many things, but Slate is ready to report that we are out of this Recession.
We do not quote Slate magazine very often. This is not because we have anything against them, but mostly because we are bogged down with other sources. However, Slate’s own Daniel Gross was one of the first to report on the Dumb Agent Theory back in 2003 and we feel as though we have been neglecting him as of late.
Therefore, we are pleased to report that he believes the recession is (technically) over. We also report it because he specifically does not rely on the Wall Street Journal (“These guys wouldn’t know an economic inflection point if it hit them upside the head.”) or anyone connected to the “CNBC noise machine”. He relies instead on the consulting firm Macroeconomic Advisers and the Economic Cycles Research Institute.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but optimism is needed, and if it’s Daniel Gross, probably justified.
You can read the whole article here.
David Leonhardt at the NY Times Economix blog picks up on this as well:
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/16/is-the-recession-over/
and gives an opposing view from Business Week