The Causes of the downturn

Fraser Nelson of the Spectator posted an excellent idea: an inquiry into the cause of the “2008 recession” to be answered by readers.

The causes of this downturn will no doubt be discussed for years and possibly decades to come. We are still arguing about the causes and consequences of the Great Depression, which shows how unsure we can be about these phenomena. Using a group of people working independently to derive a primary cause seems like a perfect way to achieve the best informed decision of the moment, even if it is geared primarily towards a British market.

The main problem stems from where Nelson continues to list an “outline” of 17 questions aimed at achieving specific answers. These questions serve only to bias, direct and anchor potential respondents and participants. Instead of letting people list their own ideas which can then be collected and analyzed, Nelson felt the need to steer the course using leading questions (Did [The Bank of England] notice the asset bubble, and why didn’t it want to act?), which will only contaminate the answers.

Too bad, because a genuine inquiry using the Wisdom of Crowds is needed.

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