Yet another article, this one from BBC, addressing prediction markets, and how they have become extremely popular for this year’s presidential election.
This article states that Joseph Biden is the front runner for the Democratic VP candidate, while Romney and Pawlenty are in top spots for the Republican VP (although McCain’s choice is expected to occur after the Democratic National Convention).
Also a notable caveat:
According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the Veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.
Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama’s or John McCain’s head.
It is true that this decision is based on one person’s (or a couple peoples’) choice, so it will be interesting to see how accurate the prediction markets are with these points.
UPDATE AUGUST 24TH
Although this post will appear on the 26th, as you can see the BBC article is from the 21st. This means that Biden was a clear front runner in the prediction markets 3 days before it was official.
