5 ways not to get duped

By Ocean in Featured, Our Theory

A big problem with Economics, or the reporting of it, is that it is being reported on in the first place. Economics as a science follows strict rules and parameters which, as we have seen, are far from full-proof. In its most basic form, however, it follows certain theories to determine whether they apply in real life or not. A minority of the theories that are thought-up actually do apply, therefore most of economics is quite boring, from a media point of view.
Even when economics does work, it can show mathematically what we have already observed in the real world (hence the confirmation that it works), which is also far from mind-boggling to the average news outlet.
The press, when reporting, is trying to sell more copies and subscriptions, or trying to achieve a higher status on DIGG. We will leave a general rant on the press for a later time, for now suffice it to say that when reading about economics (or any other form of science, for that matter), we will provide 5 steps that can help you see the full picture of what is going on:

1. Skip to the End. This might sound counter-intuitive, but news reporters know a majority of their readers will never get to the end of the article. If they want to report on a certain finding, they will mention all the sensationalist information up front (and in the headline). They will save the caveats and other points of view for the last few paragraphs. If the information of the article is being discredited by anyone, you can find out about it at the end.

2. Skip the entire article. This is actually the best method if it deals with something you are genuinely interested in. Most articles will take information from a source which took its information from a source which took its information from a source. Try to work back to as original a source as possible. Anyone who has played Chinese Whispers will know why.

3. Look at who is writing the article. If the paper, or author, have a certain target audience in mind, they will try to show information that most agrees with their shared point of view. If you’ve ever tried reading about the same topic on The Nation and The National Review, you will understand.
By the same token, realize that you as a reader are not entirely guilt-free either. Most people exhibit some form of confirmation bias when reading articles. This means that an article which shares your point of view will swiftly be agreed upon, while an article which disagrees will be over-analyzed for mistakes. This means that any randomly generated number of articles will confirm your point of view a majority of times. So instead, practice doing the opposite and over-analyze articles which you agree with. It is much harder than you’d think.

4. Correlation does NOT equal Causation. This would seem like a detail, but it comes up time and again, not only with Economics, but with all forms of subjects. It is a logical fallacy, also (not entirely correctly) referred to as “Post hoc ergo propter hoc”. A well-known example is:
A) A majority of people sleeping with their shoes off wake up with no pains.
B) A majority of people sleeping with their shoes on wake up with headaches.
Therefore:
C) Wearing shoes while sleeping causes headaches.

This fails to take into account that a majority of people who fall asleep with shoes on do so due to intoxication, which is the real cause of the headaches.

5. Use your head. As always, this is the best method to guard against being duped.

And finally, unlike most news organizations, we reward you for having read the entire article (taken from xkcd.com)