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Please read this. The CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trade Commission, a governmental body, and “Event Contracts” and “Event Markets” are government-speak for Prediction Markets.
It will be interesting to see what their conclusions will be. We are not aware of any need for governmental regulation in this sector, and are of the opinion that none [...]

For those of you with Wall Street Journal Online accounts, here’s an article about prediction markets regarding presidential races and this interesting excerpt:
Indeed, before polling became the accepted currency for information about likely voting results, in the 1940s, newspapers carried the latest betting odds as the most relevant source of information. Consider this Wall Street [...]

One of the main tenets of the Dumb Agent Theory (and the Efficient Market Hypothesis) is that you cannot beat the market. Those who disagree will mention two opposing methods: Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis. We are interested in the latter for our purposes.
Technical Analysis, also known as Charting, aims to analyze a stock’s future [...]

The folks at Predictify, an online prediction market site (like Intrade, Betfair and Newsmarkets.com) have set up a Freakonomics Prediction Center. For readers of Dumbagent.com who have been reading our posts about prediction markets, or following the markets we have posted, this might be another resource where you can choose to be part of the [...]

Forget the dullness of polls; let the markets show you who is mostly likely to win the 2008 Presidential Race.
The Dumb Agent Theory says that, assuming markets are efficient, any price of any security at any given point in time reflects its true value, or as true as can possibly be assessed. Along these lines [...]