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If you have access to the Wall Street Journal Online, you may want to read this article. It talks of Prediction Markets and their fallacies:
So-called “prediction” markets such as Intrade and Iowa Electronic Markets are, like the stock and every other market, only as reliable as the information they process. They generally do a bang-up [...]

Happy Memorial Day to everyone in the United States. To everyone else happy Monday. Today we’ll bring your attention to this website.
Goodness knows I could have used this for my thesis. It is a collection of research papers and articles regarding Prediction Markets. It is still quite rudimentary, but it is sorely needed.
We will be [...]

Please read this. The CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trade Commission, a governmental body, and “Event Contracts” and “Event Markets” are government-speak for Prediction Markets.
It will be interesting to see what their conclusions will be. We are not aware of any need for governmental regulation in this sector, and are of the opinion that none [...]

For those of you with Wall Street Journal Online accounts, here’s an article about prediction markets regarding presidential races and this interesting excerpt:
Indeed, before polling became the accepted currency for information about likely voting results, in the 1940s, newspapers carried the latest betting odds as the most relevant source of information. Consider this Wall Street [...]

One of the main tenets of the Dumb Agent Theory (and the Efficient Market Hypothesis) is that you cannot beat the market. Those who disagree will mention two opposing methods: Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis. We are interested in the latter for our purposes.
Technical Analysis, also known as Charting, aims to analyze a stock’s future [...]