Category Archives: Prediction Markets
In Memory of PAM
One of the first (organized) examples of the Dumb Agent Theory at work was the Policy Analysis Market (PAM), a market proposed by DARPA and shot down by the United States Congress, which called it the “Terrorist Market”. In a nutshell, this would have a been a market in which people could trade futures on [...]
PreTweeting
While we still mourn the loss of Predictify, we are happy to announce a new form of Prediction Market: PreTweeting.com. Most of our readers will be familiar with, if not users of, Twitter. Many of our readers will also be itching to find new Prediction Markets to invest with (well, that might just be us). [...]
The End of Predictify
We at Dumb Agent have been long time fans of Predictify, not only as a source of fun bets, but as a plausible indicator of future trends. It is therefore with a heavy heart that we announce the closing of Predictify.com. According to them: Due to the tough economic climate, we are planning to cease [...]
What does Predictify Predict?
We at Dumb Agent have been long time fans of Predictify, not only as a source of fun bets, but as a plausible indicator of future trends, much like the Iowa Electronics Market started to be years ago, and other trading platforms such as Betfair and Intrade have become. We liked Predictify particularly, however, because [...]
An Evangelical Business
For the past six months or so, forecasting has become a hazardous business. Companies need to state their projected sales and profits a year in advance, while the stockmarket, foreign exchange rates, employment rates, trade figures and interest and inflation rates have all been fluctuating more than ever before. It would make sense therefore, to [...]
