Category Archives: Prediction Markets
Prediction Market Resources
Long overdue, we have finally created a list of Prediction Market websites in our Resources section, which we list here as well: Prediction Markets Intrade.com : The most popular prediction market in the US. Due to the current laws on using money for betting, intrade allows predictions on everything save sports. Iowa Electronic Markets : [...]
Are Polls worth it anymore?
In this last US election, once again, there were some false victory claims, the most notable being the Bishop-O’shea race in Georgia, where the latter was first announced to be the winner, before all votes were counted and Bishop was proclaimed winner. The false results were due to polling. Polling is becoming harder and harder [...]
Zocalo and Inkling Prediction Markets
We like talking about Prediction Markets any chance we get, so we were excited about sites such as (the now defunct) Predictify, Hollywood Stock Exchange and Consensuspoint. We have not yet, however, reported on Zocalo Prediction Markets. This is an open source tool kit for building your own Prediction markets. What we like about it [...]
Smarkets
We just wanted to announce the launch of Smarkets.com. Unfortunately, this will be a short post. Since I am currently residing in the United States (and they have markets in sports) I am not allowed to have an account with Smarkets. I will defer to a video they have posted (although even this is truncated), [...]
Influenza’s New Market
We at Dumbagent have always been fans of the Iowa Electronics Market, even using their Influenza Prediction Market as an example of The Dumb Agent Theory at work. We were therefore quite disappointed when we searched this site for information (after a post by Midas Oracle) for information about H1N1 and found no markets after [...]
