For the past six months or so, forecasting has become a hazardous business. Companies need to state their projected sales and profits a year in advance, while the stockmarket, foreign exchange rates, employment rates, trade figures and interest and inflation rates have all been fluctuating more than ever before. It would make sense therefore, to use any means available to aid in this forecasting.
Prediction markets have been working surprisingly well for firms which have used them, especially with forecasting. They have been used internally, mostly along with other tools, in several companies in order to make major decisions. It is a wonder, therefore, why more companies have not adopted them.
An article in The Economist discusses the possible reasons why, such as that it’s a “pretty evangelical business…”
