Today being the day before the U.S. Election, we’d thought it be a great opportunity to check up on what the prediction markets have been saying about the potential outcome and prepare to compare them to the actual results. Since we at Dumbagent have been tracking the prediction markets for the US Elections for some time now, we thought we’d give a quick recap of what’s been going on:

Well, according to prediction markets, the result seem quite obvious. However, we would like to specify that these numbers give the percentage chance of victory and that they do not necessarily reflect the margin of victory. In other words, do not expect Obama to garner 89% of the vote just because he has an 89% chance of victory.

More interesting, however, are the state by state predictions, listed here:

The main point of interest here is to notice that Predictify’s Election Showdown gives North Carolina to the Republicans, while both the polls and the other prediction markets give it to the Democrats. Also Betfair gives a tie to Missouri, while the others give it to the Republicans.

NB: D= Democrat, R=Republican, T=Tie/Too close to call.
The Predictify column represents the Election Showdown by Predictify, which only allowed bets on certain specific states.
Source for Polls: Collection of 10 different polls.