Monthly Archives: April, 2008
Non-Smoking Kills
An interesting article by The Economist on how smoking bans have increased the mortality rate in certain states. This shows how a ban cannot work when it is only for limited areas, as well as how deadly unforeseen consequences can be. I also think this argument could be extended to illustrate the inefficiency of gun [...]
Prove Us Wrong
One of the main tenets of the Dumb Agent Theory (and the Efficient Market Hypothesis) is that you cannot beat the market. Those who disagree will mention two opposing methods: Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis. We are interested in the latter for our purposes. Technical Analysis, also known as Charting, aims to analyze a stock’s [...]
Timeline of a Financial Collapse
While the talking heads at the Federal Reserve would want you to believe otherwise, the Crisis (with a capital ‘C’) has just begun. The United States’ economy has transitioned into phase 1 of what is going to be a bear market for the history books. The market is waking up to the reality that the [...]
Blogs and the Time Bubble
In the middle of the 16th century, tulips were first imported from the Ottoman Empire into what is now the Netherlands. These new flowers grew in popularity until around 1630, when the tulips started contracting a virus that, while not lethal, would give the tulips mosaic-like colors. People started spending more and more on these [...]
Predictify
The folks at Predictify, an online prediction market site (like Intrade, Betfair and Newsmarkets.com) have set up a Freakonomics Prediction Center. For readers of Dumbagent.com who have been reading our posts about prediction markets, or following the markets we have posted, this might be another resource where you can choose to be part of the [...]
