By Jason on Mar 18, 2008 in Other | 2 Comments
We here at DumbAgent.com would like to wish Heidi a very economically rational and sustainably happy birthday!
Now for the relatively unrelated trivia question:
How many people must there be in order to have a 50% probability of two people sharing the same birthday? The answer is available by clicking on the ‘read the rest’ button.
By Ocean on Mar 17, 2008 in Our Theory | 0 Comments
Background: Efficient Market Hypothesis
The Dumb Agent theory is predicated upon the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). This is used to explain a frequently observed phenomenon, and was coined and best explained by Eugene Fama in 1970, who defined EMH as:
“… a market that is efficient in processing information. The prices of securities observed at any time [...]
By Ocean on Mar 15, 2008 in Articles of Interest | 0 Comments
An interesting article by Tyler Cowen on the effectiveness of Wikipedia which, being an online collaboration of various independent individuals, is a prime example of the Dumb Agent Theory at work in a social situation.
By Ocean on Mar 14, 2008 in Taxes | 0 Comments
Today is the 74th day of the year and, with a 20% burden rate, marks Tax Freedom Day in India, the first of the countries being tracked (this one by the Center for Civil Society).
Tax Freedom Day is the day when the average tax payer has stopped working for the government and has started working [...]
By Ocean on Mar 12, 2008 in Prediction Markets | 1 Comment
Forget the dullness of polls; let the markets show you who is mostly likely to win the 2008 Presidential Race.
The Dumb Agent Theory says that, assuming markets are efficient, any price of any security at any given point in time reflects its true value, or as true as can possibly be assessed. Along these lines [...]
